2016 Market Follies

January 15, 2016
 

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Oil is below $30. Right now it's $29.61. Of course, the market has dropped at least 2%. I haven't had so much fun since the bromance between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump crashed last night during the debate. What's going on, how bad is it, and what are we going to do now?

 

Good morning. My name is Paul Carroll. I'm the CEO and founder of Efficient Wealth Management, a boutique wealth management firm based here in the Woodlands, Texas. The 10 Year Treasury Bond is below 2%, that's actually good for those who have diversified bond holdings. Oil we know is down, it could go down to 15, who knows? It's not going to stay there forever. The price of oil is very sensitive to demand on the margin, and right now we're in a market that's driven by raw fear. If there's anything you've remembered or learned from the 2007-2008 debacle is fear always overreacts. This can be great for the asset allocator. We're going to sit on our hands, wait, we're highly diversified, and finally we'll have the opportunity to buy assets at more reasonable values.

 

This is great news if you've got more than a few years to retirement. The valuations were nose bleed levels in some markets. International emerging markets had already corrected. Natural resources, energy; already significantly corrected. They're great deals. We know it's a great market to be in today if you have the ability, the wherewithal, the stamina to get through this, but what if you're just approaching retirement? If that's the case, of course, you're dealing with sequence risk. If you're one of our clients you've probably heard us go on and on and on about sequence risk. We talk about it in our new program, the Disbursement Maximizer. In the Disbursement Maximizer we talk about how to manage sequence risk.

 

For those who are already retired, we've already recommended, we've put together a plan based on rules and also discussed in this package, the Disbursement Maximizer, and those rules basically state that when markets are down, we don't touch them. We touch the fixed-income that right now actually quite nicely valued and we used fixed-income as a tool for the next 3-5 years if needed, to allow those other asset classes to recover, and they will. They always do, they always have, and they always will.

 

We're going into the weekend down here in Texas, it's a beautiful Friday. I'd like you to remember that this too will pass. Do not let fear override reason. Thank you for your time, for your ears. I wish you the best of success and a very prosperous 2016.

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